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Very little middle east risk premium in Brent crude

Råvaror: Olja, guld mm


Ikon analys
SEB - Prognoser på råvaror - Commodity

Though the market was duly warned about upcoming Iranian retaliation attacks on US installations and armed forces theoil price still spiked up to almost $72/bl following the Iranian rocket attacks on two U.S. Iraqi bases tonight. Again, not a single drop of oil supply has been lost due to the recent incidents and that is why the oil price so quickly has fallen back down again. What the market fears is that the situation spirals out of control. An uncontrollable escalation leading to outright war is what the market fears.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities at SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

This morning Brent crude is trading at $69/bl which is up 1% versus close yesterday. Brent crude had a good bull-run in Q4-19. From Oct 3 to Dec 30 it moved up $10.75/bl with a close of $68.44/bl on Dec 30. Since then it is up only $0.6/bl. So, if we look at the current Brent crude oil price trading close to $70/bl there is almost no premium from the recent events in the middle east. Not so strange as we so far have lost no oil either.

The point is that the current Brent crude oil price has derived very little of its current price level from the latest events in the middle east. It is mostly about other things. One should thus not expect the oil price to fall back all that much if/when the current middle east geopolitical tension eases. A sell-off should be temporary and not so deep if the current middle east tension eases.

The current Brent crude oil price level of close to $70/bl and its upwards journey to get there through Q4-19 is about a global manufacturing PMI finally halting its long deterioration and instead moving higher again since bottoming out in July. It is about a weakening USD since the end of September. It is about central bank quantitative tightening shifting back to quantitative easing. It is about increasing monetary stimulus and expectations of ditto fiscal stimulus in 2020. It is about a market finally stopping believing that the bottom is about to fall out of the global economy following an almost continuous deterioration in global manufacturing from the end of 2017 to July 2019. The weakening global oil demand growth was/is in other words not about to fall off a cliff in 2020 either.

On the supply side of the equation we?ve had US shale oil drilling rigs being kicked out of the market from day one in 2019 and then relentlessly lower all through 2019. In Q4-19 it finally started to dawn on the market that US shale oil production was going to slow down sharply in 2020 as a result of this. So instead of booming production growth in 2018 and 2019 due to a huge infusion of debt into the shale oil sector the US EIA in December projected that US shale oil would only grow by 310 k bl/d from Dec-19 to Dec-20.

In other words what Q4-19 brought to the market was a relief and a belief that global oil demand growth would not fall out of bed in 2020 while booming US shale oil production growth in 2018 and 2019 would instead look more like a trickle-growth in 2020. Then this was topped up by further cuts by OPEC+ though the latest deal is so far only valid in Q1-20.

So, in terms of looking for downside price risks from the current Brent crude oil price level of close to $70/bl one should look for 1) A USD shifting from current weakening to instead a strengthening trend. 2) A reviving global manufacturing PMI starting to weaken instead of strengthening. 3) US oil rig count starting to rise again. 4) Lack of compliance within OPEC+ coming from Russia, Nigeria and Iraq (primarily) or signals of no extension of cuts beyond Q1-20 for the current OPEC+ deal.

And on these points, we could of course be concerned. The global manufacturing PMI did fall back a little again in December. Russia recently stated that they cannot hold back production forever and that they will need to start to think about is global market share at some point in time. Of course, when/if the current geopolitical tension in the middle east recedes there will follow a sell-off in crude oil prices, but they should be temporary and not very large. What could lead to a larger sell-off in the Brent crude oil price would be more due to the points above. Price over volume as a choice of strategy should be the preferred strategy for OPEC+ in 2020. Basically, because oil market surplus primarily is estimated to be a temporary issue during H1-2020 with a close to balanced market expected in H2-2020. So current cuts by OPEC+ is calculated to be a bridge to a balanced market in H2-2020. That is of course a highly endurable period for the group.

There is no good reason for OPEC+ to let global oil inventories to be bloated in H1-2020 just to have to struggle with surplus inventories for an extended period. When global oil inventories are high the spot price typically trades at a $10/bl discount to the longer dated price anchor of $60/bl. When inventories are normal to low, they can instead get a $10/bl premium which is what they are getting now with Brent at $70/bl.

Ch1: The front month Brent crude oil price has been moving up in Q4-19. The recent middle east events have added very little.

The front month Brent crude oil price has been moving up in Q4-19

Inlägget Very little middle east risk premium in Brent crude dök först upp på Råvarumarknaden.se .

SEB Commodities

Dessa rekommendationer skall inte ses som någon modellportfölj utan som generella riktlinjer i aktier som givit tekniska signaler. Hur man vill använda dessa signaler är upp till var och en. Några av er läsare kanske bara har en portfölj med innehav och använder köpsignalerna till att köpa och säljsignalerna till att ta hem vinst. Andra kanske använder signalerna som underlag för trading med både köp och blankning. En annan strategi är att försöka bedöma vart OMX-index är på väg och sedan favorisera signaler i samma riktning. Alla har olika uppfattningar om var börsen är på väg. Av denna förklaring försöker vi komma med publikationer innehållandes säljsignaler även om vi själva tror att börsen är på väg upp, och vice versa.

Disclaimer Axiers publikationer skall endast ses som generella kommentarer om marknaden och inte som rekommendationer att köpa eller sälja finansiella värdepapper. Axier tar inte ansvar för varken direkta eller indirekta finansiella skador som uppstår vid användning av dessa publikationer.

Analyser av Index

Very little middle east risk premium in Brent crude

Råvaror: Olja, guld mm


Ikon analys
SEB - Prognoser på råvaror - Commodity

Though the market was duly warned about upcoming Iranian retaliation attacks on US installations and armed forces theoil price still spiked up to almost $72/bl following the Iranian rocket attacks on two U.S. Iraqi bases tonight. Again, not a single drop of oil supply has been lost due to the recent incidents and that is why the oil price so quickly has fallen back down again. What the market fears is that the situation spirals out of control. An uncontrollable escalation leading to outright war is what the market fears.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities at SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

This morning Brent crude is trading at $69/bl which is up 1% versus close yesterday. Brent crude had a good bull-run in Q4-19. From Oct 3 to Dec 30 it moved up $10.75/bl with a close of $68.44/bl on Dec 30. Since then it is up only $0.6/bl. So, if we look at the current Brent crude oil price trading close to $70/bl there is almost no premium from the recent events in the middle east. Not so strange as we so far have lost no oil either.

The point is that the current Brent crude oil price has derived very little of its current price level from the latest events in the middle east. It is mostly about other things. One should thus not expect the oil price to fall back all that much if/when the current middle east geopolitical tension eases. A sell-off should be temporary and not so deep if the current middle east tension eases.

The current Brent crude oil price level of close to $70/bl and its upwards journey to get there through Q4-19 is about a global manufacturing PMI finally halting its long deterioration and instead moving higher again since bottoming out in July. It is about a weakening USD since the end of September. It is about central bank quantitative tightening shifting back to quantitative easing. It is about increasing monetary stimulus and expectations of ditto fiscal stimulus in 2020. It is about a market finally stopping believing that the bottom is about to fall out of the global economy following an almost continuous deterioration in global manufacturing from the end of 2017 to July 2019. The weakening global oil demand growth was/is in other words not about to fall off a cliff in 2020 either.

On the supply side of the equation we?ve had US shale oil drilling rigs being kicked out of the market from day one in 2019 and then relentlessly lower all through 2019. In Q4-19 it finally started to dawn on the market that US shale oil production was going to slow down sharply in 2020 as a result of this. So instead of booming production growth in 2018 and 2019 due to a huge infusion of debt into the shale oil sector the US EIA in December projected that US shale oil would only grow by 310 k bl/d from Dec-19 to Dec-20.

In other words what Q4-19 brought to the market was a relief and a belief that global oil demand growth would not fall out of bed in 2020 while booming US shale oil production growth in 2018 and 2019 would instead look more like a trickle-growth in 2020. Then this was topped up by further cuts by OPEC+ though the latest deal is so far only valid in Q1-20.

So, in terms of looking for downside price risks from the current Brent crude oil price level of close to $70/bl one should look for 1) A USD shifting from current weakening to instead a strengthening trend. 2) A reviving global manufacturing PMI starting to weaken instead of strengthening. 3) US oil rig count starting to rise again. 4) Lack of compliance within OPEC+ coming from Russia, Nigeria and Iraq (primarily) or signals of no extension of cuts beyond Q1-20 for the current OPEC+ deal.

And on these points, we could of course be concerned. The global manufacturing PMI did fall back a little again in December. Russia recently stated that they cannot hold back production forever and that they will need to start to think about is global market share at some point in time. Of course, when/if the current geopolitical tension in the middle east recedes there will follow a sell-off in crude oil prices, but they should be temporary and not very large. What could lead to a larger sell-off in the Brent crude oil price would be more due to the points above. Price over volume as a choice of strategy should be the preferred strategy for OPEC+ in 2020. Basically, because oil market surplus primarily is estimated to be a temporary issue during H1-2020 with a close to balanced market expected in H2-2020. So current cuts by OPEC+ is calculated to be a bridge to a balanced market in H2-2020. That is of course a highly endurable period for the group.

There is no good reason for OPEC+ to let global oil inventories to be bloated in H1-2020 just to have to struggle with surplus inventories for an extended period. When global oil inventories are high the spot price typically trades at a $10/bl discount to the longer dated price anchor of $60/bl. When inventories are normal to low, they can instead get a $10/bl premium which is what they are getting now with Brent at $70/bl.

Ch1: The front month Brent crude oil price has been moving up in Q4-19. The recent middle east events have added very little.

The front month Brent crude oil price has been moving up in Q4-19

Inlägget Very little middle east risk premium in Brent crude dök först upp på Råvarumarknaden.se .

SEB Commodities

Dessa rekommendationer skall inte ses som någon modellportfölj utan som generella riktlinjer i aktier som givit tekniska signaler. Hur man vill använda dessa signaler är upp till var och en. Några av er läsare kanske bara har en portfölj med innehav och använder köpsignalerna till att köpa och säljsignalerna till att ta hem vinst. Andra kanske använder signalerna som underlag för trading med både köp och blankning. En annan strategi är att försöka bedöma vart OMX-index är på väg och sedan favorisera signaler i samma riktning. Alla har olika uppfattningar om var börsen är på väg. Av denna förklaring försöker vi komma med publikationer innehållandes säljsignaler även om vi själva tror att börsen är på väg upp, och vice versa.

Disclaimer Axiers publikationer skall endast ses som generella kommentarer om marknaden och inte som rekommendationer att köpa eller sälja finansiella värdepapper. Axier tar inte ansvar för varken direkta eller indirekta finansiella skador som uppstår vid användning av dessa publikationer.

Analyser av råvaror

Very little middle east risk premium in Brent crude

Råvaror: Olja, guld mm


Ikon analys
SEB - Prognoser på råvaror - Commodity

Though the market was duly warned about upcoming Iranian retaliation attacks on US installations and armed forces theoil price still spiked up to almost $72/bl following the Iranian rocket attacks on two U.S. Iraqi bases tonight. Again, not a single drop of oil supply has been lost due to the recent incidents and that is why the oil price so quickly has fallen back down again. What the market fears is that the situation spirals out of control. An uncontrollable escalation leading to outright war is what the market fears.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities at SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

This morning Brent crude is trading at $69/bl which is up 1% versus close yesterday. Brent crude had a good bull-run in Q4-19. From Oct 3 to Dec 30 it moved up $10.75/bl with a close of $68.44/bl on Dec 30. Since then it is up only $0.6/bl. So, if we look at the current Brent crude oil price trading close to $70/bl there is almost no premium from the recent events in the middle east. Not so strange as we so far have lost no oil either.

The point is that the current Brent crude oil price has derived very little of its current price level from the latest events in the middle east. It is mostly about other things. One should thus not expect the oil price to fall back all that much if/when the current middle east geopolitical tension eases. A sell-off should be temporary and not so deep if the current middle east tension eases.

The current Brent crude oil price level of close to $70/bl and its upwards journey to get there through Q4-19 is about a global manufacturing PMI finally halting its long deterioration and instead moving higher again since bottoming out in July. It is about a weakening USD since the end of September. It is about central bank quantitative tightening shifting back to quantitative easing. It is about increasing monetary stimulus and expectations of ditto fiscal stimulus in 2020. It is about a market finally stopping believing that the bottom is about to fall out of the global economy following an almost continuous deterioration in global manufacturing from the end of 2017 to July 2019. The weakening global oil demand growth was/is in other words not about to fall off a cliff in 2020 either.

On the supply side of the equation we?ve had US shale oil drilling rigs being kicked out of the market from day one in 2019 and then relentlessly lower all through 2019. In Q4-19 it finally started to dawn on the market that US shale oil production was going to slow down sharply in 2020 as a result of this. So instead of booming production growth in 2018 and 2019 due to a huge infusion of debt into the shale oil sector the US EIA in December projected that US shale oil would only grow by 310 k bl/d from Dec-19 to Dec-20.

In other words what Q4-19 brought to the market was a relief and a belief that global oil demand growth would not fall out of bed in 2020 while booming US shale oil production growth in 2018 and 2019 would instead look more like a trickle-growth in 2020. Then this was topped up by further cuts by OPEC+ though the latest deal is so far only valid in Q1-20.

So, in terms of looking for downside price risks from the current Brent crude oil price level of close to $70/bl one should look for 1) A USD shifting from current weakening to instead a strengthening trend. 2) A reviving global manufacturing PMI starting to weaken instead of strengthening. 3) US oil rig count starting to rise again. 4) Lack of compliance within OPEC+ coming from Russia, Nigeria and Iraq (primarily) or signals of no extension of cuts beyond Q1-20 for the current OPEC+ deal.

And on these points, we could of course be concerned. The global manufacturing PMI did fall back a little again in December. Russia recently stated that they cannot hold back production forever and that they will need to start to think about is global market share at some point in time. Of course, when/if the current geopolitical tension in the middle east recedes there will follow a sell-off in crude oil prices, but they should be temporary and not very large. What could lead to a larger sell-off in the Brent crude oil price would be more due to the points above. Price over volume as a choice of strategy should be the preferred strategy for OPEC+ in 2020. Basically, because oil market surplus primarily is estimated to be a temporary issue during H1-2020 with a close to balanced market expected in H2-2020. So current cuts by OPEC+ is calculated to be a bridge to a balanced market in H2-2020. That is of course a highly endurable period for the group.

There is no good reason for OPEC+ to let global oil inventories to be bloated in H1-2020 just to have to struggle with surplus inventories for an extended period. When global oil inventories are high the spot price typically trades at a $10/bl discount to the longer dated price anchor of $60/bl. When inventories are normal to low, they can instead get a $10/bl premium which is what they are getting now with Brent at $70/bl.

Ch1: The front month Brent crude oil price has been moving up in Q4-19. The recent middle east events have added very little.

The front month Brent crude oil price has been moving up in Q4-19

Inlägget Very little middle east risk premium in Brent crude dök först upp på Råvarumarknaden.se .

SEB Commodities

Dessa rekommendationer skall inte ses som någon modellportfölj utan som generella riktlinjer i aktier som givit tekniska signaler. Hur man vill använda dessa signaler är upp till var och en. Några av er läsare kanske bara har en portfölj med innehav och använder köpsignalerna till att köpa och säljsignalerna till att ta hem vinst. Andra kanske använder signalerna som underlag för trading med både köp och blankning. En annan strategi är att försöka bedöma vart OMX-index är på väg och sedan favorisera signaler i samma riktning. Alla har olika uppfattningar om var börsen är på väg. Av denna förklaring försöker vi komma med publikationer innehållandes säljsignaler även om vi själva tror att börsen är på väg upp, och vice versa.

Disclaimer Axiers publikationer skall endast ses som generella kommentarer om marknaden och inte som rekommendationer att köpa eller sälja finansiella värdepapper. Axier tar inte ansvar för varken direkta eller indirekta finansiella skador som uppstår vid användning av dessa publikationer.

Valutaanalys

Very little middle east risk premium in Brent crude

Råvaror: Olja, guld mm


Ikon analys
SEB - Prognoser på råvaror - Commodity

Though the market was duly warned about upcoming Iranian retaliation attacks on US installations and armed forces theoil price still spiked up to almost $72/bl following the Iranian rocket attacks on two U.S. Iraqi bases tonight. Again, not a single drop of oil supply has been lost due to the recent incidents and that is why the oil price so quickly has fallen back down again. What the market fears is that the situation spirals out of control. An uncontrollable escalation leading to outright war is what the market fears.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities at SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

This morning Brent crude is trading at $69/bl which is up 1% versus close yesterday. Brent crude had a good bull-run in Q4-19. From Oct 3 to Dec 30 it moved up $10.75/bl with a close of $68.44/bl on Dec 30. Since then it is up only $0.6/bl. So, if we look at the current Brent crude oil price trading close to $70/bl there is almost no premium from the recent events in the middle east. Not so strange as we so far have lost no oil either.

The point is that the current Brent crude oil price has derived very little of its current price level from the latest events in the middle east. It is mostly about other things. One should thus not expect the oil price to fall back all that much if/when the current middle east geopolitical tension eases. A sell-off should be temporary and not so deep if the current middle east tension eases.

The current Brent crude oil price level of close to $70/bl and its upwards journey to get there through Q4-19 is about a global manufacturing PMI finally halting its long deterioration and instead moving higher again since bottoming out in July. It is about a weakening USD since the end of September. It is about central bank quantitative tightening shifting back to quantitative easing. It is about increasing monetary stimulus and expectations of ditto fiscal stimulus in 2020. It is about a market finally stopping believing that the bottom is about to fall out of the global economy following an almost continuous deterioration in global manufacturing from the end of 2017 to July 2019. The weakening global oil demand growth was/is in other words not about to fall off a cliff in 2020 either.

On the supply side of the equation we?ve had US shale oil drilling rigs being kicked out of the market from day one in 2019 and then relentlessly lower all through 2019. In Q4-19 it finally started to dawn on the market that US shale oil production was going to slow down sharply in 2020 as a result of this. So instead of booming production growth in 2018 and 2019 due to a huge infusion of debt into the shale oil sector the US EIA in December projected that US shale oil would only grow by 310 k bl/d from Dec-19 to Dec-20.

In other words what Q4-19 brought to the market was a relief and a belief that global oil demand growth would not fall out of bed in 2020 while booming US shale oil production growth in 2018 and 2019 would instead look more like a trickle-growth in 2020. Then this was topped up by further cuts by OPEC+ though the latest deal is so far only valid in Q1-20.

So, in terms of looking for downside price risks from the current Brent crude oil price level of close to $70/bl one should look for 1) A USD shifting from current weakening to instead a strengthening trend. 2) A reviving global manufacturing PMI starting to weaken instead of strengthening. 3) US oil rig count starting to rise again. 4) Lack of compliance within OPEC+ coming from Russia, Nigeria and Iraq (primarily) or signals of no extension of cuts beyond Q1-20 for the current OPEC+ deal.

And on these points, we could of course be concerned. The global manufacturing PMI did fall back a little again in December. Russia recently stated that they cannot hold back production forever and that they will need to start to think about is global market share at some point in time. Of course, when/if the current geopolitical tension in the middle east recedes there will follow a sell-off in crude oil prices, but they should be temporary and not very large. What could lead to a larger sell-off in the Brent crude oil price would be more due to the points above. Price over volume as a choice of strategy should be the preferred strategy for OPEC+ in 2020. Basically, because oil market surplus primarily is estimated to be a temporary issue during H1-2020 with a close to balanced market expected in H2-2020. So current cuts by OPEC+ is calculated to be a bridge to a balanced market in H2-2020. That is of course a highly endurable period for the group.

There is no good reason for OPEC+ to let global oil inventories to be bloated in H1-2020 just to have to struggle with surplus inventories for an extended period. When global oil inventories are high the spot price typically trades at a $10/bl discount to the longer dated price anchor of $60/bl. When inventories are normal to low, they can instead get a $10/bl premium which is what they are getting now with Brent at $70/bl.

Ch1: The front month Brent crude oil price has been moving up in Q4-19. The recent middle east events have added very little.

The front month Brent crude oil price has been moving up in Q4-19

Inlägget Very little middle east risk premium in Brent crude dök först upp på Råvarumarknaden.se .

SEB Commodities

Dessa rekommendationer skall inte ses som någon modellportfölj utan som generella riktlinjer i aktier som givit tekniska signaler. Hur man vill använda dessa signaler är upp till var och en. Några av er läsare kanske bara har en portfölj med innehav och använder köpsignalerna till att köpa och säljsignalerna till att ta hem vinst. Andra kanske använder signalerna som underlag för trading med både köp och blankning. En annan strategi är att försöka bedöma vart OMX-index är på väg och sedan favorisera signaler i samma riktning. Alla har olika uppfattningar om var börsen är på väg. Av denna förklaring försöker vi komma med publikationer innehållandes säljsignaler även om vi själva tror att börsen är på väg upp, och vice versa.

Disclaimer Axiers publikationer skall endast ses som generella kommentarer om marknaden och inte som rekommendationer att köpa eller sälja finansiella värdepapper. Axier tar inte ansvar för varken direkta eller indirekta finansiella skador som uppstår vid användning av dessa publikationer.

De mest populära analyserna

Very little middle east risk premium in Brent crude

Råvaror: Olja, guld mm


Ikon analys
SEB - Prognoser på råvaror - Commodity

Though the market was duly warned about upcoming Iranian retaliation attacks on US installations and armed forces theoil price still spiked up to almost $72/bl following the Iranian rocket attacks on two U.S. Iraqi bases tonight. Again, not a single drop of oil supply has been lost due to the recent incidents and that is why the oil price so quickly has fallen back down again. What the market fears is that the situation spirals out of control. An uncontrollable escalation leading to outright war is what the market fears.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities at SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

This morning Brent crude is trading at $69/bl which is up 1% versus close yesterday. Brent crude had a good bull-run in Q4-19. From Oct 3 to Dec 30 it moved up $10.75/bl with a close of $68.44/bl on Dec 30. Since then it is up only $0.6/bl. So, if we look at the current Brent crude oil price trading close to $70/bl there is almost no premium from the recent events in the middle east. Not so strange as we so far have lost no oil either.

The point is that the current Brent crude oil price has derived very little of its current price level from the latest events in the middle east. It is mostly about other things. One should thus not expect the oil price to fall back all that much if/when the current middle east geopolitical tension eases. A sell-off should be temporary and not so deep if the current middle east tension eases.

The current Brent crude oil price level of close to $70/bl and its upwards journey to get there through Q4-19 is about a global manufacturing PMI finally halting its long deterioration and instead moving higher again since bottoming out in July. It is about a weakening USD since the end of September. It is about central bank quantitative tightening shifting back to quantitative easing. It is about increasing monetary stimulus and expectations of ditto fiscal stimulus in 2020. It is about a market finally stopping believing that the bottom is about to fall out of the global economy following an almost continuous deterioration in global manufacturing from the end of 2017 to July 2019. The weakening global oil demand growth was/is in other words not about to fall off a cliff in 2020 either.

On the supply side of the equation we?ve had US shale oil drilling rigs being kicked out of the market from day one in 2019 and then relentlessly lower all through 2019. In Q4-19 it finally started to dawn on the market that US shale oil production was going to slow down sharply in 2020 as a result of this. So instead of booming production growth in 2018 and 2019 due to a huge infusion of debt into the shale oil sector the US EIA in December projected that US shale oil would only grow by 310 k bl/d from Dec-19 to Dec-20.

In other words what Q4-19 brought to the market was a relief and a belief that global oil demand growth would not fall out of bed in 2020 while booming US shale oil production growth in 2018 and 2019 would instead look more like a trickle-growth in 2020. Then this was topped up by further cuts by OPEC+ though the latest deal is so far only valid in Q1-20.

So, in terms of looking for downside price risks from the current Brent crude oil price level of close to $70/bl one should look for 1) A USD shifting from current weakening to instead a strengthening trend. 2) A reviving global manufacturing PMI starting to weaken instead of strengthening. 3) US oil rig count starting to rise again. 4) Lack of compliance within OPEC+ coming from Russia, Nigeria and Iraq (primarily) or signals of no extension of cuts beyond Q1-20 for the current OPEC+ deal.

And on these points, we could of course be concerned. The global manufacturing PMI did fall back a little again in December. Russia recently stated that they cannot hold back production forever and that they will need to start to think about is global market share at some point in time. Of course, when/if the current geopolitical tension in the middle east recedes there will follow a sell-off in crude oil prices, but they should be temporary and not very large. What could lead to a larger sell-off in the Brent crude oil price would be more due to the points above. Price over volume as a choice of strategy should be the preferred strategy for OPEC+ in 2020. Basically, because oil market surplus primarily is estimated to be a temporary issue during H1-2020 with a close to balanced market expected in H2-2020. So current cuts by OPEC+ is calculated to be a bridge to a balanced market in H2-2020. That is of course a highly endurable period for the group.

There is no good reason for OPEC+ to let global oil inventories to be bloated in H1-2020 just to have to struggle with surplus inventories for an extended period. When global oil inventories are high the spot price typically trades at a $10/bl discount to the longer dated price anchor of $60/bl. When inventories are normal to low, they can instead get a $10/bl premium which is what they are getting now with Brent at $70/bl.

Ch1: The front month Brent crude oil price has been moving up in Q4-19. The recent middle east events have added very little.

The front month Brent crude oil price has been moving up in Q4-19

Inlägget Very little middle east risk premium in Brent crude dök först upp på Råvarumarknaden.se .

SEB Commodities

Dessa rekommendationer skall inte ses som någon modellportfölj utan som generella riktlinjer i aktier som givit tekniska signaler. Hur man vill använda dessa signaler är upp till var och en. Några av er läsare kanske bara har en portfölj med innehav och använder köpsignalerna till att köpa och säljsignalerna till att ta hem vinst. Andra kanske använder signalerna som underlag för trading med både köp och blankning. En annan strategi är att försöka bedöma vart OMX-index är på väg och sedan favorisera signaler i samma riktning. Alla har olika uppfattningar om var börsen är på väg. Av denna förklaring försöker vi komma med publikationer innehållandes säljsignaler även om vi själva tror att börsen är på väg upp, och vice versa.

Disclaimer Axiers publikationer skall endast ses som generella kommentarer om marknaden och inte som rekommendationer att köpa eller sälja finansiella värdepapper. Axier tar inte ansvar för varken direkta eller indirekta finansiella skador som uppstår vid användning av dessa publikationer.

Övriga Analyser

Very little middle east risk premium in Brent crude

Råvaror: Olja, guld mm


Ikon analys
SEB - Prognoser på råvaror - Commodity

Though the market was duly warned about upcoming Iranian retaliation attacks on US installations and armed forces theoil price still spiked up to almost $72/bl following the Iranian rocket attacks on two U.S. Iraqi bases tonight. Again, not a single drop of oil supply has been lost due to the recent incidents and that is why the oil price so quickly has fallen back down again. What the market fears is that the situation spirals out of control. An uncontrollable escalation leading to outright war is what the market fears.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities at SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

This morning Brent crude is trading at $69/bl which is up 1% versus close yesterday. Brent crude had a good bull-run in Q4-19. From Oct 3 to Dec 30 it moved up $10.75/bl with a close of $68.44/bl on Dec 30. Since then it is up only $0.6/bl. So, if we look at the current Brent crude oil price trading close to $70/bl there is almost no premium from the recent events in the middle east. Not so strange as we so far have lost no oil either.

The point is that the current Brent crude oil price has derived very little of its current price level from the latest events in the middle east. It is mostly about other things. One should thus not expect the oil price to fall back all that much if/when the current middle east geopolitical tension eases. A sell-off should be temporary and not so deep if the current middle east tension eases.

The current Brent crude oil price level of close to $70/bl and its upwards journey to get there through Q4-19 is about a global manufacturing PMI finally halting its long deterioration and instead moving higher again since bottoming out in July. It is about a weakening USD since the end of September. It is about central bank quantitative tightening shifting back to quantitative easing. It is about increasing monetary stimulus and expectations of ditto fiscal stimulus in 2020. It is about a market finally stopping believing that the bottom is about to fall out of the global economy following an almost continuous deterioration in global manufacturing from the end of 2017 to July 2019. The weakening global oil demand growth was/is in other words not about to fall off a cliff in 2020 either.

On the supply side of the equation we?ve had US shale oil drilling rigs being kicked out of the market from day one in 2019 and then relentlessly lower all through 2019. In Q4-19 it finally started to dawn on the market that US shale oil production was going to slow down sharply in 2020 as a result of this. So instead of booming production growth in 2018 and 2019 due to a huge infusion of debt into the shale oil sector the US EIA in December projected that US shale oil would only grow by 310 k bl/d from Dec-19 to Dec-20.

In other words what Q4-19 brought to the market was a relief and a belief that global oil demand growth would not fall out of bed in 2020 while booming US shale oil production growth in 2018 and 2019 would instead look more like a trickle-growth in 2020. Then this was topped up by further cuts by OPEC+ though the latest deal is so far only valid in Q1-20.

So, in terms of looking for downside price risks from the current Brent crude oil price level of close to $70/bl one should look for 1) A USD shifting from current weakening to instead a strengthening trend. 2) A reviving global manufacturing PMI starting to weaken instead of strengthening. 3) US oil rig count starting to rise again. 4) Lack of compliance within OPEC+ coming from Russia, Nigeria and Iraq (primarily) or signals of no extension of cuts beyond Q1-20 for the current OPEC+ deal.

And on these points, we could of course be concerned. The global manufacturing PMI did fall back a little again in December. Russia recently stated that they cannot hold back production forever and that they will need to start to think about is global market share at some point in time. Of course, when/if the current geopolitical tension in the middle east recedes there will follow a sell-off in crude oil prices, but they should be temporary and not very large. What could lead to a larger sell-off in the Brent crude oil price would be more due to the points above. Price over volume as a choice of strategy should be the preferred strategy for OPEC+ in 2020. Basically, because oil market surplus primarily is estimated to be a temporary issue during H1-2020 with a close to balanced market expected in H2-2020. So current cuts by OPEC+ is calculated to be a bridge to a balanced market in H2-2020. That is of course a highly endurable period for the group.

There is no good reason for OPEC+ to let global oil inventories to be bloated in H1-2020 just to have to struggle with surplus inventories for an extended period. When global oil inventories are high the spot price typically trades at a $10/bl discount to the longer dated price anchor of $60/bl. When inventories are normal to low, they can instead get a $10/bl premium which is what they are getting now with Brent at $70/bl.

Ch1: The front month Brent crude oil price has been moving up in Q4-19. The recent middle east events have added very little.

The front month Brent crude oil price has been moving up in Q4-19

Inlägget Very little middle east risk premium in Brent crude dök först upp på Råvarumarknaden.se .

SEB Commodities

Dessa rekommendationer skall inte ses som någon modellportfölj utan som generella riktlinjer i aktier som givit tekniska signaler. Hur man vill använda dessa signaler är upp till var och en. Några av er läsare kanske bara har en portfölj med innehav och använder köpsignalerna till att köpa och säljsignalerna till att ta hem vinst. Andra kanske använder signalerna som underlag för trading med både köp och blankning. En annan strategi är att försöka bedöma vart OMX-index är på väg och sedan favorisera signaler i samma riktning. Alla har olika uppfattningar om var börsen är på väg. Av denna förklaring försöker vi komma med publikationer innehållandes säljsignaler även om vi själva tror att börsen är på väg upp, och vice versa.

Disclaimer Axiers publikationer skall endast ses som generella kommentarer om marknaden och inte som rekommendationer att köpa eller sälja finansiella värdepapper. Axier tar inte ansvar för varken direkta eller indirekta finansiella skador som uppstår vid användning av dessa publikationer.

EFN TV

EFN:s Makromorgon med Claes Måhlén, chefsstrateg, Pierre Carlsson, strateg, och Andreas Skogelid, räntestrateg, på Handelsbanken Capital Markets. De kommenterar viktiga makrohändelser och går igenom dagens agenda.

Kursgrafer Valutor

Priser på marknadens valutapar. Nedan hittar du separata sidor med priser för respektive valuta. Senaste kurs och diagram över historiska priser för olika tidshorisonter.

Just nu har vi priser för ett antal valutor, men vi kommer kontinuerligt att utöka utbudet.

AUDCAD

 

Kom ihåg att CFD:er är en produkt med hävstångseffekt, vilket kan innebära att du kan förlora hela det insatta beloppet. Att handla med CFD:er kanske inte passar för dig. Därför ska du se till att du förstår de risker som det innebär.

Disclaimer
Aktier, valutor eller andra finansiella instrument är alltid förknippat med risk. Se nedan i realtid hur valutakursen har utvecklats. Observera att diagrammet kommer från CFD-handlaren Plus500 och därför kan skilja sig en del från kurserna på valutamarknaden.

Kursgrafer Råvaror

Priser på marknadens råvaror. Nedan hittar du separata sidor med priser för respektive råvara. Senaste kurs och diagram över historiska priser för olika tidshorisonter.

Just nu har vi priser för ett mindre antal råvaror, men vi kommer kontinuerligt att utöka utbudet.

Guld

Guldterminer går till leverans varje månad året om. Metallen handlas bland annat på New York Mercantile Exchange under tickersymbolen GC och huvudkontraktet prissätts i USD och cent per troy ounce.

 

Kom ihåg att CFD:er är en produkt med hävstångseffekt, vilket kan innebära att du kan förlora hela det insatta beloppet. Att handla med CFD:er kanske inte passar för dig. Därför ska du se till att du förstår de risker som det innebär.

Välj råvara

Ädelmetaller

Energi

Jordbruk

Basmetaller

Disclaimer
Aktier, valutor eller andra finansiella instrument är alltid förknippat med risk. Se nedan i realtid hur valutakursen har utvecklats. Observera att diagrammet kommer från CFD-handlaren Plus500 och därför kan skilja sig en del från kurserna på valutamarknaden.

Kursgrafer ETF

Samtliga dessa börshandlade fonder kan handlas genom både Nordnet och Avanza.

CurrencyShares Euro ETF (NYSEArca: FXE)

Denna börshandlade fond replikerar kursutvecklingen för valutaparet USDEUR. Andelarna i denna ETF skall göra det möjligt för institutionella och privata investerare att med ett enkelt, kostnadseffektivt sätt att vinna investeringsfördelar som liknar dem som de skulle erhållit om de köpte euro mot dollar.

 

Kom ihåg att CFD:er är en produkt med hävstångseffekt, vilket kan innebära att du kan förlora hela det insatta beloppet. Att handla med CFD:er kanske inte passar för dig. Därför ska du se till att du förstår de risker som det innebär.

Kursgrafer Index

Börsindex från hela världen. Nedan hittar du separata sidor med priser för respektive index. Senaste kurs och diagram över historiska priser för olika tidshorisonter.

Just nu har vi priser för ett mindre antal index upplagda, men vi kommer kontinuerligt att utöka utbudet på de olika indexen.

Australien ASX 200

S&P/ASX 200 index är ett marknadsviktat index, justerar för floaten som mäter utvecklingen på den australiensiska aktiemarknaden. Indexet beräknas av Standard & Poors. Indexets startdatum är den 31 mars 2000 då den hade värdet 3 133,3.

 

Kom ihåg att CFD:er är en produkt med hävstångseffekt, vilket kan innebära att du kan förlora hela det insatta beloppet. Att handla med CFD:er kanske inte passar för dig. Därför ska du se till att du förstår de risker som det innebär.