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Repeated losses of supply in Libya in 2020 seems likely

Råvaror: Olja, guld mm


Ikon analys
SEB - Prognoser på råvaror - Commodity

Libya?s oil production (1.1 m bl/d in December) is now estimated to have fallen to close to zero as General Haftar has closed ports and pipelines under his control. So far there are no damages to oil installations and production can thus ramp up just as quickly if/when a decision by Hafter is taken to revive it. The big question is how much oil will be lost for how long. The market most clearly expects this to be very short term. That is why the oil price is not moving up more than 0.4% to $65.1/bl at the time of writing.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities at SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

General Haftar is in control of the eastern part of Libya and is supported by UAE, Egypt, Russia and France who have supported him with both arms and mercenaries. His goal has all along been to overtake all of Libya. He has pushed hard to conquer Tripoli where the internationally recognized government (backed by the U.N., Turkey and Qatar) is seated. He has been besieging the city now for close to a year without success.

General Haftar refused to sign a ceasefire agreement in Moscow one week ago and has now halted the flow of oil out of Libya in response to the ongoing peace negotiations. We don?t think that he will let go of his power grab ambitions in Libya. We don?t think that Russia will stop supplying him arms and funding. In our view it does not look like the ongoing peace negotiations will be successful. The result will then be further increased military and financial support of the two sides in the conflict with periods of lost supply from Libya a highly likely outcome in the year to come.

It is the National Oil Company (NOC) in Libya, seated in Tripoli, which is handling Libya?s crude oil sales. Libya?s NOC is the internationally recognized body to execute such sales. Haftar has earlier tried to circumvent the NOC but without any success.

It is the Central Bank in Tripoli which handles the income from the oil sales and then distribute it impolitically in Libya both to the east and the west.  The halt in Libya?s oil exports is thus halting the financial funding of both General Haftar to in the eastern part of Libya as well as the western part. So, unless Haftar is getting more financial funding from Russia (and Egypt, UAE and France) he will have to revive oil exports again in order to fund himself.

The expert view is that Haftar does not have neither the financial nor the military power to overtake Tripoli (and thus the whole of Libya) and if he did overtake Libya it will likely end in bloodbath and chaos. The only real solution is a diplomatic solution.

The ongoing peace negotiations is an international diplomatic effort to halt the flow of money, arms and soldiers from the international backers of the two sides which is the main driver of the current escalation.

Turkey?s president Erdogan (supporting Tripoli and western Libya) stated last Thursday that he would send troops to Tripoli in order to support the internationally recognized government there until stability has been achieved. General Haftar?s shut-down of Libya?s oil exports this weekend was probably partially a response to this move by Turkey?s Erdogan.

All through 2019 the market experienced a string of serious events in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East with the most serious being the attack on Saudi Arabia?s oil installations (Khurais field and Abqaiq processing facility) in mid-September last year.

The reason why these events did not have more than a fleeting impact on the oil price last year was of course because not much oil was really lost in these events (except Venezuela and Iran). Even the severe attack on Saudi Arabia did not lead to much losses of supply in the market since Saudi could sell oil and products from substantial inventories.

Now we have a real outage. Expected to be short-lived for now. But to us it does not look like diplomacy will be easily achieved. Thus, periods of significant losses of supply in Libya seems likely in the year to come. This will lend support to oil prices which to start with are under pressure from strong non-OPEC production growth, high inventories and lukewarm oil demand growth.

Ch1: Libya?s crude oil production. Lately at 1.1 m bl/d in December. Now probably close to zero

Libya?s crude oil production

Ch2: Iraqi oil production. If the market was to lose this supply for an extended period, then the price impact would be significant

Iraqi oil production

Inlägget Repeated losses of supply in Libya in 2020 seems likely dök först upp på Råvarumarknaden.se .

SEB Commodities

Dessa rekommendationer skall inte ses som någon modellportfölj utan som generella riktlinjer i aktier som givit tekniska signaler. Hur man vill använda dessa signaler är upp till var och en. Några av er läsare kanske bara har en portfölj med innehav och använder köpsignalerna till att köpa och säljsignalerna till att ta hem vinst. Andra kanske använder signalerna som underlag för trading med både köp och blankning. En annan strategi är att försöka bedöma vart OMX-index är på väg och sedan favorisera signaler i samma riktning. Alla har olika uppfattningar om var börsen är på väg. Av denna förklaring försöker vi komma med publikationer innehållandes säljsignaler även om vi själva tror att börsen är på väg upp, och vice versa.

Disclaimer Axiers publikationer skall endast ses som generella kommentarer om marknaden och inte som rekommendationer att köpa eller sälja finansiella värdepapper. Axier tar inte ansvar för varken direkta eller indirekta finansiella skador som uppstår vid användning av dessa publikationer.

Analyser av Index

Repeated losses of supply in Libya in 2020 seems likely

Råvaror: Olja, guld mm


Ikon analys
SEB - Prognoser på råvaror - Commodity

Libya?s oil production (1.1 m bl/d in December) is now estimated to have fallen to close to zero as General Haftar has closed ports and pipelines under his control. So far there are no damages to oil installations and production can thus ramp up just as quickly if/when a decision by Hafter is taken to revive it. The big question is how much oil will be lost for how long. The market most clearly expects this to be very short term. That is why the oil price is not moving up more than 0.4% to $65.1/bl at the time of writing.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities at SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

General Haftar is in control of the eastern part of Libya and is supported by UAE, Egypt, Russia and France who have supported him with both arms and mercenaries. His goal has all along been to overtake all of Libya. He has pushed hard to conquer Tripoli where the internationally recognized government (backed by the U.N., Turkey and Qatar) is seated. He has been besieging the city now for close to a year without success.

General Haftar refused to sign a ceasefire agreement in Moscow one week ago and has now halted the flow of oil out of Libya in response to the ongoing peace negotiations. We don?t think that he will let go of his power grab ambitions in Libya. We don?t think that Russia will stop supplying him arms and funding. In our view it does not look like the ongoing peace negotiations will be successful. The result will then be further increased military and financial support of the two sides in the conflict with periods of lost supply from Libya a highly likely outcome in the year to come.

It is the National Oil Company (NOC) in Libya, seated in Tripoli, which is handling Libya?s crude oil sales. Libya?s NOC is the internationally recognized body to execute such sales. Haftar has earlier tried to circumvent the NOC but without any success.

It is the Central Bank in Tripoli which handles the income from the oil sales and then distribute it impolitically in Libya both to the east and the west.  The halt in Libya?s oil exports is thus halting the financial funding of both General Haftar to in the eastern part of Libya as well as the western part. So, unless Haftar is getting more financial funding from Russia (and Egypt, UAE and France) he will have to revive oil exports again in order to fund himself.

The expert view is that Haftar does not have neither the financial nor the military power to overtake Tripoli (and thus the whole of Libya) and if he did overtake Libya it will likely end in bloodbath and chaos. The only real solution is a diplomatic solution.

The ongoing peace negotiations is an international diplomatic effort to halt the flow of money, arms and soldiers from the international backers of the two sides which is the main driver of the current escalation.

Turkey?s president Erdogan (supporting Tripoli and western Libya) stated last Thursday that he would send troops to Tripoli in order to support the internationally recognized government there until stability has been achieved. General Haftar?s shut-down of Libya?s oil exports this weekend was probably partially a response to this move by Turkey?s Erdogan.

All through 2019 the market experienced a string of serious events in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East with the most serious being the attack on Saudi Arabia?s oil installations (Khurais field and Abqaiq processing facility) in mid-September last year.

The reason why these events did not have more than a fleeting impact on the oil price last year was of course because not much oil was really lost in these events (except Venezuela and Iran). Even the severe attack on Saudi Arabia did not lead to much losses of supply in the market since Saudi could sell oil and products from substantial inventories.

Now we have a real outage. Expected to be short-lived for now. But to us it does not look like diplomacy will be easily achieved. Thus, periods of significant losses of supply in Libya seems likely in the year to come. This will lend support to oil prices which to start with are under pressure from strong non-OPEC production growth, high inventories and lukewarm oil demand growth.

Ch1: Libya?s crude oil production. Lately at 1.1 m bl/d in December. Now probably close to zero

Libya?s crude oil production

Ch2: Iraqi oil production. If the market was to lose this supply for an extended period, then the price impact would be significant

Iraqi oil production

Inlägget Repeated losses of supply in Libya in 2020 seems likely dök först upp på Råvarumarknaden.se .

SEB Commodities

Dessa rekommendationer skall inte ses som någon modellportfölj utan som generella riktlinjer i aktier som givit tekniska signaler. Hur man vill använda dessa signaler är upp till var och en. Några av er läsare kanske bara har en portfölj med innehav och använder köpsignalerna till att köpa och säljsignalerna till att ta hem vinst. Andra kanske använder signalerna som underlag för trading med både köp och blankning. En annan strategi är att försöka bedöma vart OMX-index är på väg och sedan favorisera signaler i samma riktning. Alla har olika uppfattningar om var börsen är på väg. Av denna förklaring försöker vi komma med publikationer innehållandes säljsignaler även om vi själva tror att börsen är på väg upp, och vice versa.

Disclaimer Axiers publikationer skall endast ses som generella kommentarer om marknaden och inte som rekommendationer att köpa eller sälja finansiella värdepapper. Axier tar inte ansvar för varken direkta eller indirekta finansiella skador som uppstår vid användning av dessa publikationer.

Analyser av råvaror

Repeated losses of supply in Libya in 2020 seems likely

Råvaror: Olja, guld mm


Ikon analys
SEB - Prognoser på råvaror - Commodity

Libya?s oil production (1.1 m bl/d in December) is now estimated to have fallen to close to zero as General Haftar has closed ports and pipelines under his control. So far there are no damages to oil installations and production can thus ramp up just as quickly if/when a decision by Hafter is taken to revive it. The big question is how much oil will be lost for how long. The market most clearly expects this to be very short term. That is why the oil price is not moving up more than 0.4% to $65.1/bl at the time of writing.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities at SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

General Haftar is in control of the eastern part of Libya and is supported by UAE, Egypt, Russia and France who have supported him with both arms and mercenaries. His goal has all along been to overtake all of Libya. He has pushed hard to conquer Tripoli where the internationally recognized government (backed by the U.N., Turkey and Qatar) is seated. He has been besieging the city now for close to a year without success.

General Haftar refused to sign a ceasefire agreement in Moscow one week ago and has now halted the flow of oil out of Libya in response to the ongoing peace negotiations. We don?t think that he will let go of his power grab ambitions in Libya. We don?t think that Russia will stop supplying him arms and funding. In our view it does not look like the ongoing peace negotiations will be successful. The result will then be further increased military and financial support of the two sides in the conflict with periods of lost supply from Libya a highly likely outcome in the year to come.

It is the National Oil Company (NOC) in Libya, seated in Tripoli, which is handling Libya?s crude oil sales. Libya?s NOC is the internationally recognized body to execute such sales. Haftar has earlier tried to circumvent the NOC but without any success.

It is the Central Bank in Tripoli which handles the income from the oil sales and then distribute it impolitically in Libya both to the east and the west.  The halt in Libya?s oil exports is thus halting the financial funding of both General Haftar to in the eastern part of Libya as well as the western part. So, unless Haftar is getting more financial funding from Russia (and Egypt, UAE and France) he will have to revive oil exports again in order to fund himself.

The expert view is that Haftar does not have neither the financial nor the military power to overtake Tripoli (and thus the whole of Libya) and if he did overtake Libya it will likely end in bloodbath and chaos. The only real solution is a diplomatic solution.

The ongoing peace negotiations is an international diplomatic effort to halt the flow of money, arms and soldiers from the international backers of the two sides which is the main driver of the current escalation.

Turkey?s president Erdogan (supporting Tripoli and western Libya) stated last Thursday that he would send troops to Tripoli in order to support the internationally recognized government there until stability has been achieved. General Haftar?s shut-down of Libya?s oil exports this weekend was probably partially a response to this move by Turkey?s Erdogan.

All through 2019 the market experienced a string of serious events in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East with the most serious being the attack on Saudi Arabia?s oil installations (Khurais field and Abqaiq processing facility) in mid-September last year.

The reason why these events did not have more than a fleeting impact on the oil price last year was of course because not much oil was really lost in these events (except Venezuela and Iran). Even the severe attack on Saudi Arabia did not lead to much losses of supply in the market since Saudi could sell oil and products from substantial inventories.

Now we have a real outage. Expected to be short-lived for now. But to us it does not look like diplomacy will be easily achieved. Thus, periods of significant losses of supply in Libya seems likely in the year to come. This will lend support to oil prices which to start with are under pressure from strong non-OPEC production growth, high inventories and lukewarm oil demand growth.

Ch1: Libya?s crude oil production. Lately at 1.1 m bl/d in December. Now probably close to zero

Libya?s crude oil production

Ch2: Iraqi oil production. If the market was to lose this supply for an extended period, then the price impact would be significant

Iraqi oil production

Inlägget Repeated losses of supply in Libya in 2020 seems likely dök först upp på Råvarumarknaden.se .

SEB Commodities

Dessa rekommendationer skall inte ses som någon modellportfölj utan som generella riktlinjer i aktier som givit tekniska signaler. Hur man vill använda dessa signaler är upp till var och en. Några av er läsare kanske bara har en portfölj med innehav och använder köpsignalerna till att köpa och säljsignalerna till att ta hem vinst. Andra kanske använder signalerna som underlag för trading med både köp och blankning. En annan strategi är att försöka bedöma vart OMX-index är på väg och sedan favorisera signaler i samma riktning. Alla har olika uppfattningar om var börsen är på väg. Av denna förklaring försöker vi komma med publikationer innehållandes säljsignaler även om vi själva tror att börsen är på väg upp, och vice versa.

Disclaimer Axiers publikationer skall endast ses som generella kommentarer om marknaden och inte som rekommendationer att köpa eller sälja finansiella värdepapper. Axier tar inte ansvar för varken direkta eller indirekta finansiella skador som uppstår vid användning av dessa publikationer.

Valutaanalys

Repeated losses of supply in Libya in 2020 seems likely

Råvaror: Olja, guld mm


Ikon analys
SEB - Prognoser på råvaror - Commodity

Libya?s oil production (1.1 m bl/d in December) is now estimated to have fallen to close to zero as General Haftar has closed ports and pipelines under his control. So far there are no damages to oil installations and production can thus ramp up just as quickly if/when a decision by Hafter is taken to revive it. The big question is how much oil will be lost for how long. The market most clearly expects this to be very short term. That is why the oil price is not moving up more than 0.4% to $65.1/bl at the time of writing.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities at SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

General Haftar is in control of the eastern part of Libya and is supported by UAE, Egypt, Russia and France who have supported him with both arms and mercenaries. His goal has all along been to overtake all of Libya. He has pushed hard to conquer Tripoli where the internationally recognized government (backed by the U.N., Turkey and Qatar) is seated. He has been besieging the city now for close to a year without success.

General Haftar refused to sign a ceasefire agreement in Moscow one week ago and has now halted the flow of oil out of Libya in response to the ongoing peace negotiations. We don?t think that he will let go of his power grab ambitions in Libya. We don?t think that Russia will stop supplying him arms and funding. In our view it does not look like the ongoing peace negotiations will be successful. The result will then be further increased military and financial support of the two sides in the conflict with periods of lost supply from Libya a highly likely outcome in the year to come.

It is the National Oil Company (NOC) in Libya, seated in Tripoli, which is handling Libya?s crude oil sales. Libya?s NOC is the internationally recognized body to execute such sales. Haftar has earlier tried to circumvent the NOC but without any success.

It is the Central Bank in Tripoli which handles the income from the oil sales and then distribute it impolitically in Libya both to the east and the west.  The halt in Libya?s oil exports is thus halting the financial funding of both General Haftar to in the eastern part of Libya as well as the western part. So, unless Haftar is getting more financial funding from Russia (and Egypt, UAE and France) he will have to revive oil exports again in order to fund himself.

The expert view is that Haftar does not have neither the financial nor the military power to overtake Tripoli (and thus the whole of Libya) and if he did overtake Libya it will likely end in bloodbath and chaos. The only real solution is a diplomatic solution.

The ongoing peace negotiations is an international diplomatic effort to halt the flow of money, arms and soldiers from the international backers of the two sides which is the main driver of the current escalation.

Turkey?s president Erdogan (supporting Tripoli and western Libya) stated last Thursday that he would send troops to Tripoli in order to support the internationally recognized government there until stability has been achieved. General Haftar?s shut-down of Libya?s oil exports this weekend was probably partially a response to this move by Turkey?s Erdogan.

All through 2019 the market experienced a string of serious events in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East with the most serious being the attack on Saudi Arabia?s oil installations (Khurais field and Abqaiq processing facility) in mid-September last year.

The reason why these events did not have more than a fleeting impact on the oil price last year was of course because not much oil was really lost in these events (except Venezuela and Iran). Even the severe attack on Saudi Arabia did not lead to much losses of supply in the market since Saudi could sell oil and products from substantial inventories.

Now we have a real outage. Expected to be short-lived for now. But to us it does not look like diplomacy will be easily achieved. Thus, periods of significant losses of supply in Libya seems likely in the year to come. This will lend support to oil prices which to start with are under pressure from strong non-OPEC production growth, high inventories and lukewarm oil demand growth.

Ch1: Libya?s crude oil production. Lately at 1.1 m bl/d in December. Now probably close to zero

Libya?s crude oil production

Ch2: Iraqi oil production. If the market was to lose this supply for an extended period, then the price impact would be significant

Iraqi oil production

Inlägget Repeated losses of supply in Libya in 2020 seems likely dök först upp på Råvarumarknaden.se .

SEB Commodities

Dessa rekommendationer skall inte ses som någon modellportfölj utan som generella riktlinjer i aktier som givit tekniska signaler. Hur man vill använda dessa signaler är upp till var och en. Några av er läsare kanske bara har en portfölj med innehav och använder köpsignalerna till att köpa och säljsignalerna till att ta hem vinst. Andra kanske använder signalerna som underlag för trading med både köp och blankning. En annan strategi är att försöka bedöma vart OMX-index är på väg och sedan favorisera signaler i samma riktning. Alla har olika uppfattningar om var börsen är på väg. Av denna förklaring försöker vi komma med publikationer innehållandes säljsignaler även om vi själva tror att börsen är på väg upp, och vice versa.

Disclaimer Axiers publikationer skall endast ses som generella kommentarer om marknaden och inte som rekommendationer att köpa eller sälja finansiella värdepapper. Axier tar inte ansvar för varken direkta eller indirekta finansiella skador som uppstår vid användning av dessa publikationer.

De mest populära analyserna

Repeated losses of supply in Libya in 2020 seems likely

Råvaror: Olja, guld mm


Ikon analys
SEB - Prognoser på råvaror - Commodity

Libya?s oil production (1.1 m bl/d in December) is now estimated to have fallen to close to zero as General Haftar has closed ports and pipelines under his control. So far there are no damages to oil installations and production can thus ramp up just as quickly if/when a decision by Hafter is taken to revive it. The big question is how much oil will be lost for how long. The market most clearly expects this to be very short term. That is why the oil price is not moving up more than 0.4% to $65.1/bl at the time of writing.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities at SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

General Haftar is in control of the eastern part of Libya and is supported by UAE, Egypt, Russia and France who have supported him with both arms and mercenaries. His goal has all along been to overtake all of Libya. He has pushed hard to conquer Tripoli where the internationally recognized government (backed by the U.N., Turkey and Qatar) is seated. He has been besieging the city now for close to a year without success.

General Haftar refused to sign a ceasefire agreement in Moscow one week ago and has now halted the flow of oil out of Libya in response to the ongoing peace negotiations. We don?t think that he will let go of his power grab ambitions in Libya. We don?t think that Russia will stop supplying him arms and funding. In our view it does not look like the ongoing peace negotiations will be successful. The result will then be further increased military and financial support of the two sides in the conflict with periods of lost supply from Libya a highly likely outcome in the year to come.

It is the National Oil Company (NOC) in Libya, seated in Tripoli, which is handling Libya?s crude oil sales. Libya?s NOC is the internationally recognized body to execute such sales. Haftar has earlier tried to circumvent the NOC but without any success.

It is the Central Bank in Tripoli which handles the income from the oil sales and then distribute it impolitically in Libya both to the east and the west.  The halt in Libya?s oil exports is thus halting the financial funding of both General Haftar to in the eastern part of Libya as well as the western part. So, unless Haftar is getting more financial funding from Russia (and Egypt, UAE and France) he will have to revive oil exports again in order to fund himself.

The expert view is that Haftar does not have neither the financial nor the military power to overtake Tripoli (and thus the whole of Libya) and if he did overtake Libya it will likely end in bloodbath and chaos. The only real solution is a diplomatic solution.

The ongoing peace negotiations is an international diplomatic effort to halt the flow of money, arms and soldiers from the international backers of the two sides which is the main driver of the current escalation.

Turkey?s president Erdogan (supporting Tripoli and western Libya) stated last Thursday that he would send troops to Tripoli in order to support the internationally recognized government there until stability has been achieved. General Haftar?s shut-down of Libya?s oil exports this weekend was probably partially a response to this move by Turkey?s Erdogan.

All through 2019 the market experienced a string of serious events in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East with the most serious being the attack on Saudi Arabia?s oil installations (Khurais field and Abqaiq processing facility) in mid-September last year.

The reason why these events did not have more than a fleeting impact on the oil price last year was of course because not much oil was really lost in these events (except Venezuela and Iran). Even the severe attack on Saudi Arabia did not lead to much losses of supply in the market since Saudi could sell oil and products from substantial inventories.

Now we have a real outage. Expected to be short-lived for now. But to us it does not look like diplomacy will be easily achieved. Thus, periods of significant losses of supply in Libya seems likely in the year to come. This will lend support to oil prices which to start with are under pressure from strong non-OPEC production growth, high inventories and lukewarm oil demand growth.

Ch1: Libya?s crude oil production. Lately at 1.1 m bl/d in December. Now probably close to zero

Libya?s crude oil production

Ch2: Iraqi oil production. If the market was to lose this supply for an extended period, then the price impact would be significant

Iraqi oil production

Inlägget Repeated losses of supply in Libya in 2020 seems likely dök först upp på Råvarumarknaden.se .

SEB Commodities

Dessa rekommendationer skall inte ses som någon modellportfölj utan som generella riktlinjer i aktier som givit tekniska signaler. Hur man vill använda dessa signaler är upp till var och en. Några av er läsare kanske bara har en portfölj med innehav och använder köpsignalerna till att köpa och säljsignalerna till att ta hem vinst. Andra kanske använder signalerna som underlag för trading med både köp och blankning. En annan strategi är att försöka bedöma vart OMX-index är på väg och sedan favorisera signaler i samma riktning. Alla har olika uppfattningar om var börsen är på väg. Av denna förklaring försöker vi komma med publikationer innehållandes säljsignaler även om vi själva tror att börsen är på väg upp, och vice versa.

Disclaimer Axiers publikationer skall endast ses som generella kommentarer om marknaden och inte som rekommendationer att köpa eller sälja finansiella värdepapper. Axier tar inte ansvar för varken direkta eller indirekta finansiella skador som uppstår vid användning av dessa publikationer.

Övriga Analyser

Repeated losses of supply in Libya in 2020 seems likely

Råvaror: Olja, guld mm


Ikon analys
SEB - Prognoser på råvaror - Commodity

Libya?s oil production (1.1 m bl/d in December) is now estimated to have fallen to close to zero as General Haftar has closed ports and pipelines under his control. So far there are no damages to oil installations and production can thus ramp up just as quickly if/when a decision by Hafter is taken to revive it. The big question is how much oil will be lost for how long. The market most clearly expects this to be very short term. That is why the oil price is not moving up more than 0.4% to $65.1/bl at the time of writing.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities at SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

General Haftar is in control of the eastern part of Libya and is supported by UAE, Egypt, Russia and France who have supported him with both arms and mercenaries. His goal has all along been to overtake all of Libya. He has pushed hard to conquer Tripoli where the internationally recognized government (backed by the U.N., Turkey and Qatar) is seated. He has been besieging the city now for close to a year without success.

General Haftar refused to sign a ceasefire agreement in Moscow one week ago and has now halted the flow of oil out of Libya in response to the ongoing peace negotiations. We don?t think that he will let go of his power grab ambitions in Libya. We don?t think that Russia will stop supplying him arms and funding. In our view it does not look like the ongoing peace negotiations will be successful. The result will then be further increased military and financial support of the two sides in the conflict with periods of lost supply from Libya a highly likely outcome in the year to come.

It is the National Oil Company (NOC) in Libya, seated in Tripoli, which is handling Libya?s crude oil sales. Libya?s NOC is the internationally recognized body to execute such sales. Haftar has earlier tried to circumvent the NOC but without any success.

It is the Central Bank in Tripoli which handles the income from the oil sales and then distribute it impolitically in Libya both to the east and the west.  The halt in Libya?s oil exports is thus halting the financial funding of both General Haftar to in the eastern part of Libya as well as the western part. So, unless Haftar is getting more financial funding from Russia (and Egypt, UAE and France) he will have to revive oil exports again in order to fund himself.

The expert view is that Haftar does not have neither the financial nor the military power to overtake Tripoli (and thus the whole of Libya) and if he did overtake Libya it will likely end in bloodbath and chaos. The only real solution is a diplomatic solution.

The ongoing peace negotiations is an international diplomatic effort to halt the flow of money, arms and soldiers from the international backers of the two sides which is the main driver of the current escalation.

Turkey?s president Erdogan (supporting Tripoli and western Libya) stated last Thursday that he would send troops to Tripoli in order to support the internationally recognized government there until stability has been achieved. General Haftar?s shut-down of Libya?s oil exports this weekend was probably partially a response to this move by Turkey?s Erdogan.

All through 2019 the market experienced a string of serious events in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East with the most serious being the attack on Saudi Arabia?s oil installations (Khurais field and Abqaiq processing facility) in mid-September last year.

The reason why these events did not have more than a fleeting impact on the oil price last year was of course because not much oil was really lost in these events (except Venezuela and Iran). Even the severe attack on Saudi Arabia did not lead to much losses of supply in the market since Saudi could sell oil and products from substantial inventories.

Now we have a real outage. Expected to be short-lived for now. But to us it does not look like diplomacy will be easily achieved. Thus, periods of significant losses of supply in Libya seems likely in the year to come. This will lend support to oil prices which to start with are under pressure from strong non-OPEC production growth, high inventories and lukewarm oil demand growth.

Ch1: Libya?s crude oil production. Lately at 1.1 m bl/d in December. Now probably close to zero

Libya?s crude oil production

Ch2: Iraqi oil production. If the market was to lose this supply for an extended period, then the price impact would be significant

Iraqi oil production

Inlägget Repeated losses of supply in Libya in 2020 seems likely dök först upp på Råvarumarknaden.se .

SEB Commodities

Dessa rekommendationer skall inte ses som någon modellportfölj utan som generella riktlinjer i aktier som givit tekniska signaler. Hur man vill använda dessa signaler är upp till var och en. Några av er läsare kanske bara har en portfölj med innehav och använder köpsignalerna till att köpa och säljsignalerna till att ta hem vinst. Andra kanske använder signalerna som underlag för trading med både köp och blankning. En annan strategi är att försöka bedöma vart OMX-index är på väg och sedan favorisera signaler i samma riktning. Alla har olika uppfattningar om var börsen är på väg. Av denna förklaring försöker vi komma med publikationer innehållandes säljsignaler även om vi själva tror att börsen är på väg upp, och vice versa.

Disclaimer Axiers publikationer skall endast ses som generella kommentarer om marknaden och inte som rekommendationer att köpa eller sälja finansiella värdepapper. Axier tar inte ansvar för varken direkta eller indirekta finansiella skador som uppstår vid användning av dessa publikationer.

EFN TV

EFN:s Makromorgon med Claes Måhlén, chefsstrateg, Pierre Carlsson, strateg, och Andreas Skogelid, räntestrateg, på Handelsbanken Capital Markets. De kommenterar viktiga makrohändelser och går igenom dagens agenda.

Kursgrafer Valutor

Priser på marknadens valutapar. Nedan hittar du separata sidor med priser för respektive valuta. Senaste kurs och diagram över historiska priser för olika tidshorisonter.

Just nu har vi priser för ett antal valutor, men vi kommer kontinuerligt att utöka utbudet.

AUDCAD

 

Kom ihåg att CFD:er är en produkt med hävstångseffekt, vilket kan innebära att du kan förlora hela det insatta beloppet. Att handla med CFD:er kanske inte passar för dig. Därför ska du se till att du förstår de risker som det innebär.

Disclaimer
Aktier, valutor eller andra finansiella instrument är alltid förknippat med risk. Se nedan i realtid hur valutakursen har utvecklats. Observera att diagrammet kommer från CFD-handlaren Plus500 och därför kan skilja sig en del från kurserna på valutamarknaden.

Kursgrafer Råvaror

Priser på marknadens råvaror. Nedan hittar du separata sidor med priser för respektive råvara. Senaste kurs och diagram över historiska priser för olika tidshorisonter.

Just nu har vi priser för ett mindre antal råvaror, men vi kommer kontinuerligt att utöka utbudet.

Guld

Guldterminer går till leverans varje månad året om. Metallen handlas bland annat på New York Mercantile Exchange under tickersymbolen GC och huvudkontraktet prissätts i USD och cent per troy ounce.

 

Kom ihåg att CFD:er är en produkt med hävstångseffekt, vilket kan innebära att du kan förlora hela det insatta beloppet. Att handla med CFD:er kanske inte passar för dig. Därför ska du se till att du förstår de risker som det innebär.

Välj råvara

Ädelmetaller

Energi

Jordbruk

Basmetaller

Disclaimer
Aktier, valutor eller andra finansiella instrument är alltid förknippat med risk. Se nedan i realtid hur valutakursen har utvecklats. Observera att diagrammet kommer från CFD-handlaren Plus500 och därför kan skilja sig en del från kurserna på valutamarknaden.

Kursgrafer ETF

Samtliga dessa börshandlade fonder kan handlas genom både Nordnet och Avanza.

CurrencyShares Euro ETF (NYSEArca: FXE)

Denna börshandlade fond replikerar kursutvecklingen för valutaparet USDEUR. Andelarna i denna ETF skall göra det möjligt för institutionella och privata investerare att med ett enkelt, kostnadseffektivt sätt att vinna investeringsfördelar som liknar dem som de skulle erhållit om de köpte euro mot dollar.

 

Kom ihåg att CFD:er är en produkt med hävstångseffekt, vilket kan innebära att du kan förlora hela det insatta beloppet. Att handla med CFD:er kanske inte passar för dig. Därför ska du se till att du förstår de risker som det innebär.

Kursgrafer Index

Börsindex från hela världen. Nedan hittar du separata sidor med priser för respektive index. Senaste kurs och diagram över historiska priser för olika tidshorisonter.

Just nu har vi priser för ett mindre antal index upplagda, men vi kommer kontinuerligt att utöka utbudet på de olika indexen.

Australien ASX 200

S&P/ASX 200 index är ett marknadsviktat index, justerar för floaten som mäter utvecklingen på den australiensiska aktiemarknaden. Indexet beräknas av Standard & Poors. Indexets startdatum är den 31 mars 2000 då den hade värdet 3 133,3.

 

Kom ihåg att CFD:er är en produkt med hävstångseffekt, vilket kan innebära att du kan förlora hela det insatta beloppet. Att handla med CFD:er kanske inte passar för dig. Därför ska du se till att du förstår de risker som det innebär.